The Box-Jenkins methodology for modeling and forecasting from univariate time series models has long been considered a standard to which other forecasting techniques have been compared. To a Bayesian ...

We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multiparty elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models.

A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) is designed for ensemble predictions of daily river stage, leveraging the spatial interdependence of river networks and hydrometeorological variables ...