Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important ...

As a climatologist and a geographer, I am very interested in how weather and climate varies across geographical space. To that extent, how does the forecastability of weather vary from one location to ...

Large earnings surprises and negative earnings surprises represent more egregious errors in analysts' earnings forecasts. We find evidence consistent with our expectation that egregious forecast ...

The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast just shifted slightly, but it’s not because of anything that happened in politics. Rather, it’s because ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

Absolute errorThe numerical difference between a forecasted quantity and the actual result is known as absolute error. If you predict that you'll run a mile in eight ...

Decades of improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting have led to slimmer and more accurate hurricane track cones with this year’s ubiquitous funnel 3% to 5% smaller as compared to 2024. The cone, ...